Lending

Navigating a Compressed Mortgage Market: Insights from the 2023 Mortgage Industry Event Season

5 mins read
December 29, 2023
By
Mike Waterston

2023 was a challenging year for the mortgage industry as rates slowly climbed to a peak of just over 8%, and more and more borrowers opted to hold out until the tides turned. Total Expert was on-site at events—like Mortgage Bankers Association (MBA) Annual and Digital Mortgage—all year long to connect with thousands of mortgage professionals, discuss the challenges and opportunities ahead, and strategize ways to position each mortgage lender for success.

Total Expert Chief Lending Officer Dan Catinella was front and center to engage with mortgage leaders from across the country, and these are his big takeaways from the 2023 mortgage event season:

Industry forecast and projections

Mortgage leaders across the country eagerly awaited an update from the MBA on where the housing market is headed. According to MBA Chief Economist Michael Fratantoni, the U.S. economy has been resilient throughout 2023, but MBA is forecasting that the combination of higher interest rates, tighter credit conditions, and a depletion of pandemic-era household savings will lead to a mild recession in the first half of 2024. Purchase originations are forecast to increase 11% to $1.47 trillion next year. By loan count, total mortgage origination volume is also expected to increase by 19%, to 5.2 million loans in 2024 from 4.4 million loans in 2023.

Fratantoni believes that as the economy slows and inflation moves lower, longer-term rates will decline from current levels, helping to bring mortgage rates lower. However, the spread between mortgage and Treasury rates remains roughly 120 basis points wider than typical, due to a combination of factors. MBA’s baseline forecast is for mortgage rates to end 2024 at 6.1% and reach 5.5% by the end of 2025, as Treasury rates decline and as the spread narrows.

Market growth opportunities

As the market has compressed significantly from 2021 levels, mortgage lenders are focusing heavily on where they grow. There’s a heightened focus on recruiting efforts and ensuring their originator acquisition strategy and process is optimized heading into 2024. Leaders at lenders of all sizes are keen to combine market intelligence technology with sales and marketing automation to maximize that effort. Many lenders are also looking at their current recruiting processes and adapting it to increase their ability to attract top sales talent to their organization.

Maximizing the lifetime value of every customer

With the decline in overall mortgage originations, lenders are realizing just how many opportunities they’re leaving behind by not nurturing relationships with their existing customers. Mortgage industry customer retention rates still hover in the ~20% range, so there’s a tremendous number of untapped opportunities buried in their customer databases. As data intelligence solutions, such as Total Expert Customer Intelligence, continue to evolve, they give sales teams at mortgage lenders the upper hand by ensuring that they don’t miss out on the next opportunity to serve their customers. In addition, while real estate agents are still the primary source of purchase business, lenders have long desired to get to the customer prior to them working with an agent. These customer intelligence solutions are no longer a nice to have—they’re now table stakes to compete in this new market.

Growing the homebuyer pool

Heightened interest rates and home prices have made buying and owning a home more difficult in the middle- and lower-income bands, particularly for first-time homebuyers. The most significant barriers include debt-to-income ratios, credit quality and history, and insufficient down payment. Mortgage lenders are putting a large focus on education and advice engagement strategies to combat these areas, and ensure potential homebuyers understand what and how they need to prepare for home ownership along with the key benefits over renting.

Maximize existing tech investments

As lenders have been on a steady quest to reduce operating costs and cost per funded loan, they’ve also been evaluating their entire technology stack and determining which solutions provide a real return on investment (ROI). What many lenders have found is that they’re paying for tech that doesn’t provide a clear ROI, has very little user adoption, and they aren’t using the native automation capabilities that they’re paying for. A large focus has been put on optimizing their current tech investments, leveraging the capabilities they can enable, and ensuring they maximize the value to their organization. Mortgage lenders are also using this market to ensure they’re aligning themselves with tech partners for the future—the ones that are proving they will continue to invest and innovate, even through tough times to best support their customers. Lenders desire to work closely with their tech partners to strategize around their business objectives and execute together to solve their challenges and react quickly to the opportunities in the market.

Mortgage industry events continue to provide the best opportunities for lenders, loan officers, and marketing professionals to connect and have honest conversations about the challenges—and opportunities—we’re all facing. I learn something new at every event, but this year it became clear just how important using data and intelligence will be for the mortgage industry in 2024. Without a plan or tools to turn data into action, you won’t be able to maximize customer retention, surface new opportunities, or provide proactive education and advice to all existing and potential homeowners.  

Connect with the Total Expert team to discuss how we can help you optimize your business and be prepared to seize the opportunities in the market.  

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Technology

Reflections on Accelerate 2025: Aiming at a New Necessary

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What a week. I walked into this industry ten months ago with fresh eyes, full of respect for the impact this industry has on people’s lives. After spending time with our clients and partners at Accelerate—during sessions, hallway conversations, and yes, even at the parties—that respect has deepened. This isn’t just an industry. This is a community of passionate, talented people who don’t simply originate loans or manage portfolios, they create life-changing opportunities for millions. You care deeply about doing this work, and I’m grateful to be building alongside you.

But here’s the thing: we’re at a turning point. What got us here, the strategies that helped us retain and grow in the past, are no longer good enough. You might say it is necessary, but not sufficient, and the cost of waiting is higher than the cost of change. The forces reshaping our industry aren’t on the horizon; they’re sitting at the table. AI technologies, increasingly complex compliance, mergers and acquisitions, shifting consumer demands. It’s not a question of whether we’ll adapt, it’s whether we’re adapting fast enough.  

That’s why, at Accelerate, Joe and I introduced the concept of the “new necessary” as part of our Aim Higher conference theme. Staying relevant (and competitive) requires more than awareness, automation, or clever content. It requires deep, enterprise-ready context that powers systems of intelligence and action. Systems where originators and AI work together in sync—always on, highly consistent, endlessly scalable. Your feedback, and the results we’ve seen so far, tell me we’re on the right track. And. Have a lot to do!

Throughout the conference, I spoke about four pillars of focus: Strengthening the Foundation, Customer IQ, Lead Management, and AI. Here’s a quick tour.

Strengthening the Foundation

This year, we doubled down on the foundation of Total Expert: improving core capabilities, enhancing performance, expanding our ecosystem, evolving user experience. At Accelerate, we demonstrated real progress: faster email delivery, more tools to utilize SMS, automated marketing packages, Sales Manager Dashboards, and new integrations. That’s great progress. More is necessary. We are on it!    

Customer IQ

Agentic AI enables business value when it’s fueled by rich, accurate, and timely context.  The insights and enrichment from Customer Intelligence is necessary and drives great business outcomes. However, more is needed to take full advantage of what’s possible with AI Agents acting as high-performing members of your team rather than wasting time and money on bland generic agents operating with limited context.

That’s why we announced Customer IQ. We are deepening our commitment to dramatically increase context across four dimensions; enrichment and insights, consent, contact/customer information, and relationship history.  As an early example, in December we’ll be releasing new capabilities to enable the collection and aggregation of consent from multiple systems directly into Total Expert. That means our AI Sales Assistant can instantly understand consent and act on it- accurately and efficiently. More context expansions are already queued up for 2026.

Lead Management: Reimagined

We’re launching the first release of our revamped Lead Management in February. This isn’t just a tune-up; it’s a rebuild. From lead ingestion and routing policies to loan officer workflows, admin tools, journey orchestration, and analytics—this release sets the stage for what’s coming next. And it’s just the beginning. Stay tuned for more updates soon.

Agentic AI and AI Services

At Accelerate, we showcased real results from the AI Sales Assistant. Four use cases are live today, and we’re handling millions of calls each month. This volume has accelerated performance most importantly, customer results. With the right combination of context, industry expertise, and integrations into business processes, we’ve unlocked a recipe for success. We’re continuing to expand on this, with exciting new use cases on the horizon.

We also shared our vision on Agentic Management, or the “control tower,” and our early work on AI services like Natural Language Interfaces. These are key to driving more intelligence, more automation, and better user experiences across the platform. A good example of this is the demo of the natural-language data interface, which was a personal highlight for me as a preview of the seamless, intuitive future we’re working toward.

Why this Matters

Our mission is simple: help you retain and grow. How? By enabling you to execute the perfect customer journey, fueled by context, driven consistently by orchestrated journeys, executed by both humans and intelligent agents working in harmony, with a virtuous feedback loop. Always on and enterprise-grade.    

This is the new necessary.  

I’m incredibly fired up about our vision, our momentum, our roadmap, and the amazing work we get to do alongside our clients, partners, and teammates. At the end of the day, it’s not about the technology. It’s about the business value it enables. The customers who are leaning into what we’re building are becoming more competitive. Those that aren’t risk falling behind.

I hope that Accelerate, this post, and our community give you the inspiration and insights you need to chart your next steps toward the new necessary—the why, the how, and the when.  

Thank you, as always, for your feedback, your drive, and your partnership. Let’s keep moving toward the perfect customer journey!

Pete

Mortgage

Smaller Lenders, Bigger Impact: Using Data to Deepen Personal Relationships

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Forming authentic relationships has always been the competitive edge for smaller lenders. And as the FinServ world has become more tech-driven and digital-first, credit unions and community banks have only leaned further into this powerful differentiator. But we’re seeing an interesting trend among some of the most successful small- to mid-market lenders: They’re recognizing that tech-enabled engagement is no longer mutually exclusive to genuine human connections. They’ve created powerful data-driven strategies that make it easier for them to build good, old-fashioned personal relationships.

These forward-thinking lenders are realizing that their smaller size is actually an advantage in implementing “big data” tools and strategies. We’re seeing credit unions and community banks deploy Total Expert Customer Intelligence in a matter of weeks and start realizing value in as little as 90 days, building a loyalty- and revenue-generating engine that fuels itself.

But how are they doing it in a financial landscape where consumers have more choices and competitors aren’t just in the building across the street?

Even close borrower relationships are growing more complex

Small- to mid-market lenders have been historically hesitant to embrace tech-powered, data-driven strategies because there was a concern that it would dehumanize their connections with borrowers. Which is understandable as community banks and credit unions have built their brands and their reputations on their ability to forge honest, transparent relationships—getting to know their customers and members in ways bigger lenders could only dream of.

But even those 1:1 borrower connections are now digital-first, multi-channel relationships. Those increasingly complex relationships involve exponentially more data, information, preferences, and intent signals. A common concern we hear among smaller lenders runs along the lines of, “We don’t have enough data for a ‘Big Data’ strategy.” But the truth is that even the smallest credit unions and community banks are swimming (and sometimes drowning) in a pool of tremendously valuable data.

Borrowers expect to feel “known” across every channel; they want the same feeling of 1:1 personalization at every touchpoint. And it’s becoming a genuine challenge for smaller lenders to juggle all the information and orchestrate these hyper-personalized omnichannel experiences.

Using Customer Intelligence + marketing automation to enhance personal borrower relationships

More and more credit unions and community banks are turning to data-driven, tech-enabled strategies to complement—not replace—their personal relationships with borrowers. We’ve seen smaller lenders have tremendous success with Customer Intelligence and our dynamic, automated Journeys because they:

  • Surface intent signals in real time: Customer Intelligence surfaces critical intent signals as they happen, giving LOs the superpower of knowing what borrowers and homeowners need when they need it.
  • Highlight life events as critical engagement opportunities: Customer Intelligence helps smaller lenders go beyond traditional intent signals, recognizing key life events or milestones (graduating, getting married, starting a family, changing careers, retiring, etc.) that signal shifting financial goals and new borrowing needs. This gives your LOs natural opportunities to reach out with helpful, personalized guidance.
  • Enable personalized outreach at scale and speed: Credit unions and community banks are using Total Expert Journeys and other automation capabilities to help their LOs stay on top of all of these valuable Customer Intelligence signals. Built-in triggers and automated Journeys enable LOs to magically engage at just the right time—across their full roster of customers and prospects.

Smaller lenders are leveraging Total Expert’s digital toolset to help them show up for borrowers when it matters most—across every and all channels—to give them the feeling they want most: a trusted financial advisor who understands their financial needs and goals, providing proactive support and guidance to help deliver the best possible outcome.

Measuring time-to-value in weeks, not years

Another major misconception among credit unions and community banks is that they don’t have the resources to manage this kind of automated, Customer Intelligence-powered strategy.  

It’s true that smaller lenders likely don’t have large internal teams of data analysts (if any). But Total Expert has led the charge in democratizing access to leading-edge data analytics tools and capabilities. We’ve designed Customer Intelligence and Journeys to be easy to deploy and quick and intuitive to set up.

The smaller size of most credit unions and community banks works to their advantage here. We consistently see these customers go live and start seeing measurable value with Customer Intelligence in as little as eight weeks because they’re able to implement, build, test, and launch faster than larger lenders that have more layers of reviews and approvals.

Smaller lenders driving big value: Customer Intelligence case studies

Dart Bank

  • Customer Intelligence in action: Dart Bank uses Customer Intelligence to surface life events and intent signals in real time, enabling LOs to engage members with proactive, personalized support across channels.
  • Driving measurable value: In just six months, Dart Bank drove an additional $48 million in funded loans—all by connecting with borrowers at the right moments of opportunity.

Tucson Federal Credit Union (TFCU)

  • Customer Intelligence in action: TFCU adopted Total Expert Journeys + Customer Intelligence to automate workflows, unify member data, and personalize communications; reducing manual work (e.g., uploading data daily) and streamlining email campaigns.
  • Driving measurable value: Open rates now exceed industry benchmarks (25–26%), and click‐through rates have improved. Campaign build times dropped from weeks to minutes.

Family Savings Credit Union

  • Customer Intelligence in action: Family Savings Credit Union moved from generic, outsourced marketing to using Total Expert Journeys, personalized messaging across channels, and better data visibility internally (bringing together core banking data, email, etc.), enabling them to send more strategic and relevant communications.
  • Driving measurable value: By acting on these insights, Family Savings Credit Union has increased retention and preserved the strong member relationships that fuel long-term success.

Horicon Bank

  • Customer Intelligence in action: Horicon created a Data Insights department, deployed Total Expert for centralized CRM/marketing automation, enabling more intentional targeting and personalized communications, letting staff have visibility into customer behavior across branches and channels.
  • Driving measurable value: The bank is now orchestrating timely, personalized borrower outreach at scale—transforming digital signals into relationship-building opportunities that strengthen loyalty.

Tech- and data-driven strategies have proven over and over that they have the ability to help deepen personal relationships for smaller credit unions and community banks. Our customers are proving that size doesn’t have to be a barrier. It can be an advantage that allows organizations to move quickly, leverage powerful tools like Customer Intelligence, and deliver authentic, personalized experiences at scale.

Learn more about Customer Intelligence and how it can drive consistent growth by enhancing your member and customer relationships.

Partner Ecosystem

[Dark Matter] Unlocking the Mortgage Ecosystem

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Total Expert’s Director of Product Integrations and Innovation, Mike Russell, recently joined Dark Matter Technologies’ Product Evangelist, Craig Rebmann, for an episode of Spotlight Backstage. Their conversation went behind the scenes of the mortgage ecosystem to show how lenders can drive real results by connecting the right people, processes, and technology to create a network of partners and integrations that streamline operations and create better borrower experiences.

From insights on how lenders are optimizing the technology they already use and adopting best practices to finding new ways to improve efficiency without sacrificing service, the key theme was clear: success comes from building a connected ecosystem where your tools talk to each other and your teams have the right support. If you want to see what’s possible when technology and partnerships align, this is the perfect place to start.

Catch the full conversation on Dark Matter Technologies' website >

Unlocking the Mortgage Ecosystem

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