Banking

Ranking Purchase Markets, 2022-2023 Projected in Top 5

5 mins read
July 21, 2022
By
Total Expert

Lenders are feeling the shift away from rate-induced boom times in mortgage. The total number of mortgage applications is down 57.6% as of July 8, compared to the same week of July 2021. Purchase apps are down 18.3%, but refinance apps are down 79.6%.

But are 2022 and 2023 projected to be as bad as headlines imply?

While there’s no way for lenders not to feel that shift, it’s the speed of change that has most impacted them. The industry has not seen rate increases of 75 basis points since before the turn of the century. It feels like a bust. But when the forecast tells a different story – one of a return to a purchase market that lenders have known and made profits in for decades.

Economist projections are best guesses at what the market will do. If we assume the market offers volumes close to those expected by economists, then this year and 2023 will be above-average origination volumes. In fact, out of the 27 years from 1995 to 2022, only the period from 2002 to 2006 offered mortgage lenders more opportunity than economists now predict for 2022.

If the market does offer the 2.27 trillion originations projected for 2023, it will be a top-three, purchase-market year since 2006, only 2019 is in the same ballpark. (This assumes a “purchase year” is defined as a year in which refinances make up less than 50% of originations.)

Editor’s note – update July 22: Fannie Mae’s Economic and Strategic Research (ESR) Group adjusted its projections for 2022 total home sales growth to a decline of 15.6%, compared to a decline of 13.5% predicted last month. ESR also revised upward its home price appreciation forecast to 16.0 percent year-over-year-growth in 2022 from the previously projected 10.8 percent.

Equity – 2022’s Refinance Opportunity

One important difference between 2022 and 2023, compared to other purchase years, is the remaining refinance volume available.

Most of the pain of declining rate refinances will be baked in by the end of 2022. After that, refinances will provide similar contributions to origination volumes in 2022 and 2023, according to economists’ crystal ball at least.

In fact, refinances are anticipated to remain at 33% and 27% in 2022 and 2023, respectively – even though few people can rate refinance anymore.

Homeowners’ record-setting equity is the reason is projected to provide significant strength to refinance volume.

Single-family home prices increased at the annualized rate of 19.4% in second quarter of 2022, down slightly from the previous quarter’s 20.5%, according to Fannie Mae.

“Home prices maintained a near-historic pace of appreciation in the second quarter, as low levels of housing inventory continued to support price growth,” said Doug Duncan, Fannie Mae Senior Vice President and Chief Economist. “At the end of 2021 and extending into 2022, we believe many homebuyers pulled forward their purchase plans to avoid expected increases in mortgage rates, contributing to demand for homes and strong price appreciation.”

Fannie Mae economists expect the sharp rise in mortgage rates to cool purchase demand in the quarters ahead, which in turn will moderate home price appreciation. Equity growth is predicted to slow. Yet, homeowners are forecast to both keep and to grow their equity in the years to come – many projections still put that equity growth in double-digits for 2022.

The Mortgage Relationship Moment

As noted by Fannie Mae’s Chief Economist, rates are motivating buyers to move this year before rates climb even more. Homebuyers need lenders who have the expertise and the tools to help them into their next home as soon as possible. With bond markets signaling a rate increase of 75 basis points, if not a full percentage point in July 2022 (at the time this guide was published), borrowers need help figuring out what to do, and they need it fast.

Consumers are increasingly pessimistic about their prospects in home real estate. Their sentiment about homebuying conditions fell to its second-lowest reading in a decade, according to a Fannie Mae report on Home Purchase Sentiment.

If buyers are downtrodden on the market, you might expect sellers to be optimistic. But that’s not what Fannie Mae found. The percentage of consumers who believe it’s a “Good Time to Sell” fell to 68% – a decline of 10% this month. For the first time since 2015, approximately half of all respondents indicated that it would be ‘difficult’ to get a mortgage, the highest such percentage since 2014. People feel uncertain. Both buyers and sellers aren’t sure they can afford a new home with prices and rate appreciating at the same time.

Homebuyers’ negative sentiment, though, shouldn’t be read as defeat for the mortgage and real estate market. The majority of consumers in the same survey said they would prefer to buy a home if they moved, rather than renting. People want to own a home; they’re just not sure they can manage to get into one. They need a provider who knows the steps to make their goals possible.

The same is true for homeowner who have equity. Many can get out of debt, others can finally upgrade their home, and still more can pay for unexpected large expense without using a credit card. They need to know and understand their options; they await a lender who will show them.

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Total Expert’s Director of Product Integrations and Innovation, Mike Russell, recently joined Dark Matter Technologies’ Product Evangelist, Craig Rein, for an episode of Spotlight Backstage. Their conversation went behind the scenes of the mortgage ecosystem to show how lenders can drive real results by connecting the right people, processes, and technology to create a network of partners and integrations that streamline operations and create better borrower experiences.

From insights on how lenders are optimizing the technology they already use and adopting best practices to finding new ways to improve efficiency without sacrificing service, the key theme was clear: success comes from building a connected ecosystem where your tools talk to each other and your teams have the right support. If you want to see what’s possible when technology and partnerships align, this is the perfect place to start.

Catch the full conversation on Dark Matter Technologies' website >

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Navigating the HPPA Shift: Why It’s a Win for Lenders Who Put Customers First

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Change is the one constant in financial services, but the way we respond to it separates the leaders from the pack. The newly signed Homebuyer Privacy Protection Act (HPPA)—taking effect in March 2026—is a shift in how lenders can access and use consumer credit data. However, while some may view this as another regulatory headache, the reality is far more encouraging: it’s an opportunity to raise the bar on trust, transparency, and customer experience.  It’s another validation of our “Customer for Life” strategy.

This isn’t about dodging restrictions. It’s about recognizing that the playbook for winning customers is evolving—and those who embrace that evolution will come out stronger.

What’s changing?

Under the HPPA, credit bureaus can no longer sell a consumer’s credit file unless the lender meets one of a few narrow conditions:

  • Originated the consumer's current mortgage
  • Service the consumer's current mortgage
  • Obtained clear, documented consent from the consumer
  • As a bank or credit union, maintain an active account for that consumer

There’s even a GAO study on the way, examining how trigger-lead solicitations via text messaging impact consumers—a clear sign regulators are watching the fine line between engagement and harassment.

For lenders who have long relied on trigger leads, this represents a fundamental shift. But for institutions that have invested in building relationships the right way, this is good news.

What this means for lenders

The HPPA shuts the door on spray-and-pray solicitation tactics. But it opens the door wider for lenders who want to compete on trust and relationship strength. Specifically, it creates new opportunities to:

  • Deepen existing customer relationships with proactive, personalized engagement.
  • Capture consent earlier in the journey, before borrowers get lost in a flood of noise.
  • Differentiate in a less crowded, more consumer-friendly marketplace where trust is a true competitive advantage.

The lenders who lean in here will win—not because they shouted the loudest, but because they earned the right to stay connected.

Why this isn’t just another regulatory headache

Consumers have been saying it for years: the barrage of calls, texts, and emails after a mortgage application is exhausting. Some borrowers receive 100+ solicitations within 24 hours. That doesn’t build confidence—it erodes it. And we know this is not how our TE customers run their business.

HPPA represents a rare alignment of regulators, consumer advocates, and lenders themselves. It clears away predatory noise, improves the homebuying experience, and rewards lenders who put relationships at the center of their strategy.

As our Founder & CEO Joe Welu often reminds us, “Trust is the currency of modern financial services.” This law is an accelerant for lenders who understand that principle.

How we're going to help you thrive in a post-HPPA world

We’re not sitting on the sidelines waiting to see how this plays out. Our platform was purpose-built to help lenders engage customers in a way that’s personal, compliant, and built to last. Here’s how we’re making sure you’re ready for March 2026:

  • Proactive guidance: Our mortgage and tech experts are already helping lenders adjust monitoring practices, so they stay compliant without losing momentum.
  • Expand Customer Intelligence: We’re finalizing new capabilities to drive increased awareness and enrichment of your relationships, including expanding CI to all three bureaus, and streamlining our credit improvement alert.
  • Investments in consent: Upgraded features coming soon to capture and respect consumer consent in clear, frictionless ways—including through our ecosystem partnerships.

This isn’t a band-aid or a reaction; it’s an evolution of how modern lenders build sustainable engagement to develop customers for life.

Bottom line: this isn’t a roadblock—it’s an opportunity

Every regulatory change comes with friction. But HPPA isn’t just about compliance—it’s about clarity. It’s about stripping away noise and giving lenders who prioritize relationships a stage to shine.

The lenders who thrive in this new environment won’t be the ones chasing trigger leads. They’ll be the ones investing in trusted, personalized engagement—from first touch through every financial milestone.

And that’s exactly what Total Expert was built to help you do: navigate the shifts, build lifelong trust, and continue winning customers for life.

AI

Authenticity at Scale: Using AI to Deliver Genuine Customer Experiences

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AI has surged from curious novelty to critical business driver faster than any other technology in the digital age. With AI capabilities evolving faster than most financial institutions (FIs) and marketing teams can train for, it’s easy to understand how leveraging AI tools and enterprise solutions effectively can become a frustrating experience for both leadership and marketing pros.

While every organization’s challenges are unique, one common thread is that most FIs lack a clearly defined strategy or framework for selecting, implementing, and using their AI solutions.

Here are three foundational elements to help marketing leaders accelerate AI-enabled customer engagement without losing control of authentic, on-brand customer experiences.

Focus on using AI to scale—not replace—your team

The AI revolution arrives with ironic timing for FIs: We’ve spent the last decade talking about how to bring back the human touch in a digital-first world. On the surface, it’s easy to think that AI will push us in the opposite direction—breeding more generic, cold, impersonal experiences.

But like other tech tools, the most immediate and significant value will come in using AI as a tool to scale your team’s capabilities. What does that look like in practice?

  • Automating or offloading the tedious and repetitive work your team does: Think about AI agents cold-calling for lead gen, doing time-consuming data analysis, or handling the orchestration of complicated, multi-touch, multi-channel, anything-but-linear customer journeys.
  • Unlocking deeper insights, faster: AI can dive into your customer data to find new kinds of intent signals in real time. Imagine identifying those key periods of transition or change in peoples’ lives—graduating, getting married, starting a family, changing careers, retiring—so your team can show up for customers at these critical moments.
  • Freeing up more time for human connections: At the simplest level, AI applied well will allow your team to do more with less—and that will give them more time to focus on where and how to provide that human touch and make those genuine one-to-one engagements. This is what we’ve been doing at Total Expert for more than a decade now through better analytics and smarter automation. AI just turbocharges everything.

Choose the right AI—and connect it to your core systems

Not even three years after ChatGPT opened this AI era, there are thousands of AI tools on the market—including hundreds of marketing-specific AI solutions. Don’t be fooled by the “they’re all the same under the hood” line—the packaging is critical to the usability and time-to-value with these tools, especially when it comes to delivering authentic experiences.

It’s really a classic Goldilocks problem: On one side of the spectrum, the big-name generalist AI platforms that claim to do everything produce generic experiences for your customers. They’re not built for the highly regulated, highly sensitive kinds of engagement and conversations that FIs have with their customers. Plus, it takes a lot of work—and time and money—to get them to work like you need them to.

On the other side of the spectrum are hyper-specialized AI apps built to do one very specific task right out of the box—but lacking the broader capabilities to connect with your core systems and orchestrate entire experiences. This kind of extremely focused functionality ends up creating maddening experiences for customers when they hit the limitations of the tools’ knowledge and capabilities. FIs need AI tools built with enterprise-grade, enterprise-wide capabilities—able to tie into your marketing system of record so they can see and orchestrate the full customer journey.

If you can solve that Goldilocks problem — finding an AI solution built for financial services and connecting it at the core of your CX — you can realize the full efficiencies and, more importantly, deliver a more genuine, helpful, brand-authentic experience.

Give your AI the inputs that set it up for success

Using GenAI to create content — copy, design, video, etc. — really can feel like magic. But the reality is that it’s inherently derivative. In other words, the outputs are only as good as the inputs — like the classic analytics adage: garbage in, garbage out.

If you want to maintain brand authenticity, create reliably compliant outputs, and deliver consistent experiences that feel seamless for your customers, you need to help the AI fully understands your brand, your engagement strategy, and your acute and big-picture objectives.

Best practices for prompt engineering is an article—or an entire book—in itself. But the point is, as incredible as AI is, it’s still a tool — and a tool requires a skilled, intentional user. Cultivating these skills also takes intention. Workers in any role can feel naturally hesitant to be open about their AI use and experimentation; they don’t want to risk looking lazy or replaceable. But to move forward effectively with AI, FIs need to build a culture that encourages that experimentation and sharing of new use cases and best practices.

AI as an engine for authenticity

There’s little doubt that AI will lead to a surge in impersonal, generic banking experiences. That’s not a condemnation of AI; it will be the result of FIs using generic AI tools and generic AI strategies.

That also means that genuine, personalized experiences will become even more differentiated in this incredibly competitive industry. The key is to focus on how to use AI to amplify what we’ve always strived to do in this industry: make real connections and build authentic relationships based on trust.

By focusing on these three principles — using AI to help your team focus on scaling human connections, choosing the right tool and integrating it deeply, and giving your AI the best possible inputs — you’re building a strategy that makes AI an engine for authenticity. The reward isn't just increased efficiency; it's the ability to deliver authentic, brand-consistent experiences at a scale never before possible.

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