Lending

Prepping for Refis: What Lenders Need to Know

5 mins read
January 2, 2024

It may have taken longer than we were all expecting (and hoping for), but the Federal Reserve finally announced its first rate cut in over four years. Now, virtually everyone who bought a home in the last 18 months will be eager to take advantage. As the market shifts, mortgage lenders could be looking at as much as $500 billion in up-for-grabs refis.

But lenders will have to work a lot harder than they did in 2020 to capture those refis. And underneath that golden opportunity sits a tremendous risk: With a huge volume of practically new mortgages likely to turn over, loan servicers could see a number of recent loans running off their books while lenders face enormous early pay-off (EPO) penalties if they can’t hold onto their existing customers when they refinance.

Mortgage market will accelerate as Fed rates fall

After 11 rate hikes starting in March 2022, the Fed has been adamant that it intends to lower rates in 2024 and 2025. Exactly when those cuts will happen (and how big they’ll be) remains a mystery—one that causes significant market fluctuations after every meeting.

After two-plus years marked by rising rates and rising housing prices, mortgage lenders are naturally optimistic about the coming year. “We expect that this path for monetary policy should support further declines in mortgage rates, just in time for the spring housing market,” Mike Fratantoni, chief economist at the Mortgage Bankers Association, told Bankrate. The National Association of Realtors predicts home sales will rise by 15% next year as falling rates bring hesitant buyers off the sidelines.

A very different kind of refi surge

But the real golden goose will be the oncoming wave of refinancing. Nearly every homeowner who bought between late 2022 and early 2024 did so with an explicit plan to refinance as soon as the highest rates in decades began falling.

How big is that refi opportunity? If rates drop below 6.625%, organizations working with Total Expert will be looking at an estimated $81 billion in refis up for grabs—and that opportunity jumps up to $190 billion if rates get below 6.0%.

But this refi surge is going to play out a lot differently than the one we experienced in 2020-2021. That was a true tidal wave: 2020 saw $2.6 trillion in inflation-adjusted refinance originations. Refi customers were pouring through lenders’ doors, and the only strategy then was: “try to keep up.”

In 2024/2025, lenders will see a lot more competition for that $190 billion in up-for-grabs refis. They won’t be able to sit back and wait for refis to come to them; their competition will be out stealing those opportunities.  

A major opportunity that could quickly turn into catastrophic risk

Mortgage lenders are going to have to balance two priorities: attracting new borrowers who patiently waited for rates to drop and retaining previous customers who impatiently waited for rates to drop. Both groups present major opportunities, but focusing too much on either could have severe and long-term consequences. Only focusing on new homebuyers means risking losing existing customers and incurring massive EPO penalties. On the other hand, ignoring new borrowers for the sake of retention means missing out on a huge slice of the new purchase pie.

That’s because the 2024/2025 refi surge will differ in another important way: Nearly all refis will be on mortgages originated within the last two years—with a huge portion originating within the last 12 to 18 months. Losing refis is always a hit to long-term revenue, but losing these refis will bring a wave of EPO penalties that will quickly overwhelm lenders that may already struggle to be profitable in the current market.

Given the volume of at-risk mortgages, the damage could quickly get serious. With the industry-average retention rate hovering around 20%, a mortgage lender that originated 1,400 loans above 6.5% over the last 15-18 months stands to lose over 1,000 of those refinance opportunities—adding up to $280 million on lost loan volume (assuming an average loan size of $250k). If 800 of those loans are less than six months old, they are at risk of paying out roughly $4.8 million in EPO penalties.

Proactive engagement will win the battle

Whereas 2020 was a bit of a “rising tide lifts all boats” situation, 2024/2025 will see a sharp divide between winners and losers in the mortgage lending industry. And for once, winning won’t be all about new originations and new customer acquisition: The top priority needs to be holding onto existing customers’ refis to prevent EPOs from torpedoing revenue and growth from below.

That means engaging customers proactively—now, not when rates finally drop—to help them understand what’s coming in 2024/2025. Help them make the cost-benefit calculation of refinancing at a lower rate versus waiting four, six, or eight months for rates to fall further. This is the kind of genuinely useful educational engagement that earns loyalty and will outshine the low-rate competitor offers, which are guaranteed to sit at the top of your customers’ inboxes every day.

Prioritizing refi retention: Put the mechanics in place now, or risk playing catch-up

Refi activity will accelerate quickly once rates start to drop in 2024. Your competitors will have their fingers on the trigger of their refi acquisition campaigns, aiming to be the first to entice your customers with low rates. But while they wait to steal your customers, you can start engaging and educating customers TODAY, positioning yourself as their best resource for when they’re ready to refi.

Want to see the four things that define the winning mortgage lenders?

Read our latest refi guide: https://info.totalexpert.com/dont-send-your-refinance-opportunities-into-orbit

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AI

The Loan Officer’s New Co-Worker: Total Expert’s AI

mins read
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*This article was reposted from HousingWire.com*

In this exclusive interview, Joe Welu, Founder & CEO of Total Expert, shares the company’s latest advances in AI. He focuses on lessons learned from their pilot program and explores how AI is delivering a measurable lift in operational efficiency and lead conversions across lending teams.

Beyond internal improvements, Joe reveals Total Experts’ focus on the borrower experience and how their technology is designed to supercharge loan officers, not replace them. Joe shares with Allison LaForgia his forward-looking perspective on the innovations expected in the near future that will continue to drive Total Expert’s leadership in mortgage technology.

“We anticipated… it would probably take maybe nine months to a year to be able to get to parity with a human… and we’re blown away. It happened within two weeks,” Welu said. The voice AI agent, designed to qualify leads through inbound and outbound calls, is now handling more than 2 million calls a month, with multiple lenders, in various stages of scaling.

Welu attributes the rapid progress to the unprecedented pace of innovation in AI. “It’s like nothing anyone’s ever seen before… there’s hundreds of billions, if not soon trillions, being invested in infrastructure and large language models… we get the opportunity to build on top of those capabilities and reimagine what we can do in our industry.”

The pilot program, he said, was rooted in an iterative approach with tight feedback loops. “As we learn… it gives us information, and we make adjustments… A key thing we’ve learned with AI projects… get really super clear about what it is in the business that you are improving. Give them that target… so it’s not this ambiguous sort of black box.”

The results have been measurable: “We are seeing, in some cases, 10 to 20% better conversions,” Welu said. AI’s consistency is a major factor. “It always remembers to call people back… never calls in sick… works weekends… It allows you to take your great people and… have them doing the most highly productive work possible.”

Borrower experience is also improving. “One of the pleasant surprises… is the quality of the experience to the end consumer,” he said. Whether or not lenders disclose that a caller is AI, “the quality of the interaction is so high, they continue down the path.” The AI agent maintains “the right tone… the ability to match… the tempo of the conversation” while instantly tapping into contextual customer data.

Welu emphasized that Total Expert’s AI is designed to “supercharge,” not replace, loan officers. “There are still moments where consumers want high quality advice… Our goal is to take a loan officer and put them in a position where they are spending… the majority of their time having the highest quality conversations… and abstracting away things that don’t add value.”

Looking ahead, Total Expert’s roadmap focuses on intentional, scalable AI. “We think about getting super clear on… use cases, and partnering with people that are going to be as obsessive as you are, about making it great,” Welu said. Over the next year, customers can expect new capabilities in customer intelligence, lead management, and additional AI-driven use cases. “Seeing it all come together is what gets me up and excited every day.”

AI

AI Revolution: From “Discovering Fire” to Real Business Outcomes

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By: Joe Welu, Total Expert Founder & CEO

Best Practices for Executive Teams Deploying AI in Financial Services

The AI revolution feels like humanity just discovered fire—and everyone is racing to see what they can ignite.

That means a rush of AI pilots and proofs-of-concept across all industries, many of which launched without evaluating each use case against actual business value.

As I meet with CEOs and executive teams from leading mortgage lenders and financial institutions, the conversation has shifted from “What can AI do?” to “How do we deploy AI responsibly, at speed, and with measurable impact?”

The market leaders I work with are outpacing competitors by following a remarkably consistent playbook. They’re not just testing AI, they’re embedding it across their organizations with purpose, speed, and discipline.

Below, I’ve distilled the best practices I’ve observed from the institutions getting the most from AI today.

Anchor AI strategy to business outcomes

Tie every AI initiative to a clear business priority—whether it’s loan growth, customer retention, or operational efficiency.

Define KPIs, ROI targets, and adoption metrics before a project begins. No project should exist without a measurable path to value.

Start with high-impact, low-friction wins

Focus first on areas where a proof of concept or pilot is feasible within 30-60 days. Conversational and Voice AI solutions provide many options for pilot use cases. Other common use cases involve document classification, predictive churn modeling, or intelligent lead scoring. These early wins build momentum, prove ROI, and prepare teams for more complex deployments.

Invest in data quality and governance early

AI is only as good as the data feeding it.

Start by creating a single source of truth for customer and loan data. Then, anticipate obstacles to deploying AI with your data, such as consumer consent and preference management, and start addressing these things ASAP. Investing in tools like Customer Intelligence will help enrich your data and increase its value.  

Embed compliance and risk management from day one

Regulations such the Gramm-Leach-Bliley Act (GLBA), TCPA (Telephone Consumer Protection Act), and UDAP (Unfair, Deceptive, or Abusive Acts or Practices) will be a few key areas where regulators dig in and look for companies cutting corners.

Create a cross-functional AI task force

Bring together leaders from product, compliance, data science, operations, and customer experience. Avoid siloed pilots—alignment ensures every initiative supports the broader business strategy. Include change management expertise to drive adoption, not just deployment.

Prioritize customer experience and trust

Every organization has gaps in their customer journey and can benefit from leveraging AI to provide human-like touch points throughout the experience. Use AI to remove friction, improve transparency, and deliver personalization at scale. Keep humans informed about high-stakes decisions and be transparent with customers about how AI is used and how their data is protected.

Build for integration, not isolation

Select AI solutions that integrate seamlessly with your CRM, LOS, core banking systems, and data lakes. Use APIs and modular architectures to avoid “AI silos” that slow scale and ROI.

Focus on talent and change management

Embracing AI with a growth mindset should be table stakes. Incentivize adoption so teams see AI as an enabler—not a threat to their roles. Upskill executives and frontline teams in AI literacy. When needed, recruit or partner for deep ML and data science expertise.

Measure, monitor, and iterate

AI is not a one-and-done project—it’s a living product. Track performance, user adoption, and ROI continuously, and refine models quarterly to maintain accuracy and relevance.

Choose the right tech partners: favor vertical specialists

Partner with vendors who understand financial services—especially your unique customer journeys or workflows. Deep domain understanding on core systems, database schemas, compliance, and other nuances will be a key factor in the results you achieve.

Benefits of vertical-focused partners:

  • Deep understand of unique data sets and customer profiles
  • Faster implementation with industry-specific models
  • Built-in regulatory and risk controls
  • Product roadmaps aligned to lending and banking trends

Horizontal AI tools have their place, but without deep domain expertise, they often require heavy internal customization and a slower time to value.

The future is here

AI today is not the same as the project in 2018 that failed to deliver those operational efficiencies in the back office everyone was promised. Its potential to transform nearly every part of our businesses is becoming increasingly clear. Every day you delay, competitors are building up their capabilities and you will struggle to catch up. As one of my investors put it bluntly, “Every day you fail to execute a comprehensive AI strategy, the value of your business goes down.”  

To learn more about how Total Expert is working with our customers on high-impact AI initiatives, please reach out to our team.  

Lending

From Lone Wolves to a Unified Pack: Why Lenders Need a Shared Platform

mins read
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The mortgage industry has always prized the hustle. The most successful loan officers (LOs) are those with the motivation and self-direction to relentlessly chase leads, manage relationships, and close deals—and the ingenuity to develop their own best practices. Those qualities remain essential. But in today’s market, mortgage lenders can’t afford to treat their LOs as lone-wolf salespeople. That conventional model doesn’t just limit growth—it actively undermines it.

Fragmentation is a real problem for lenders, and the lone wolf model isn’t making it any easier. Individual excellence isn’t enough when data is disconnected, messaging is inconsistent, and decisions get made in silos. Meanwhile, LOs can (understandably) over-rotate toward short-term wins, while the bigger opportunities—building long-term relationships and sustainable growth—get lost in the noise.

What lenders need now is alignment, visibility, and unification. They need a way to turn one-time borrowers into lifelong customers. And that starts by getting everyone on the same page—and the same platform.

Why lone-wolf lending fails

When LOs are left to figure things out on their own, the result is predictable: they optimize for what they can control. They chase leads. They close loans. And they do it all with whatever tools and processes they’re most comfortable with.

This approach is serviceable for the individual LO. But when you scale that to dozens or hundreds of LOs—each working in isolation—issues quickly emerge:

  • No shared customer insight. Everyone’s working from their own spreadsheets, contact lists, or partial CRM views.
  • No coordinated engagement. Borrowers get wildly different experiences depending on which LO they’re working with.
  • No long-term strategy. Because LOs are buried in day-to-day deals, there’s no time—or incentive—to nurture relationships that might pay off months or years down the road.

The result? Short-term gains that cause long-term stagnation. Without a coordinated strategy, you end up with isolated efforts that fail to make a lasting impact. And the moment the market shifts, lenders are left scrambling. Those once-shiny wins quickly become embarrassing monuments to short-sighted tactics.

A seamless platform provides limitless visibility

So, what’s the answer? The most important change is giving your team a common foundation to work from—and that comes down to choosing the right technology. Centralizing customer data and engagement on a single platform can change how your business functions at all levels:

It unifies the customer experience. Everyone’s drawing from the same source of truth, so your borrowers get a consistent message and a more personal, relevant journey—no matter which LO they’re working with.

  • It gives LOs insight they can actually use. A centralized view reveals not just who’s ready to do business today, but who’s showing long-term intent signals—credit checks, property listings, life events—and who’s worth nurturing over time.
  • It boosts efficiency and productivity. Automating outreach, follow-up, and lead prioritization frees LOs to focus on what they do best: building trust, closing deals, and deepening relationships.
  • It creates a real growth engine. With shared data and a scalable engagement strategy, you can stop scrambling and start building a system that can grow predictably and sustainably, even when the market gets choppy.

LO adoption: where most tech implementations go wrong

Of course, tech on its own won’t fix anything. If LOs don’t use the platform, you’re back to square one.  

This is a big hurdle in the lending world, where there’s very real inertia to change. Most LOs aren’t eager to change what’s already working for them. If a new tool or platform just feels like it will add extra work, they’ll ignore it—leaving your new solution to collect dust and your investment or time and money largely wasted.

This is why solving the adoption problem needs to be part of your strategy from the start. And while it’s a serious issue, there are three key steps to mitigate it:

  1. Keep it simple. Give your LOs tools and dashboards that surface what matters most—who to call, when to follow up, what’s driving intent—without forcing them to dig or overwhelming them with features and functions they won’t ever use.
  1. Show, don’t tell. Help them connect the dots between using the platform and hitting their numbers. If it helps them close faster, follow up smarter, or get more repeat business, they’ll at least be willing to try. As the saying goes: “You can lead a horse to water…”
  1. Support them like it matters. Training should be hands-on and tailored, not a one-time webinar. This is just as much your vendor’s responsibility as it is yours. Make sure you vet any vendor’s ability to commit to successful implementation.

The extent to which you follow these three steps will go a long way in determining whether you see ROI on your tech investment.  

You can’t scale in infinite directions

Every lending organization has LOs who go above and beyond; LOs who lag behind, and LOs who simply meet expectations. And lone wolves permeate all three groups; following their own roadmap, chasing any opportunity they find, and hindering the organization’s larger growth strategy. That’s why organizations structured this way find it impossible to scale.  

Now, imagine if you could have tech that elevates every LO to the same high-performing level. By aligning your entire sales organization on a single platform that helps them work more efficiently, your good LOs will continue to produce, but now your struggling and middle-of-the-road LOs can level up—allowing leaders and platform administrators to spend less time reigning in lone wolves and more time supporting the pack.  

Wolves hunt better in packs  

LOs will always be at the front line of your lending operation. But treating them like individual agents instead of coordinated players in a unified strategy is holding your business back.

By moving to a shared platform and getting serious about adoption, you set your organization up for something far more valuable than short-term wins. You build a system that gets smarter over time and nurtures every relationship—not just the ones that close quickly. You also strengthen the resilience of your business, setting it up for growth no matter how the market moves or how your organization evolves.

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