Lending

Prepping for Refis: What Lenders Need to Know

5 mins read
January 2, 2024
By
Mike Waterston

It may have taken longer than we were all expecting (and hoping for), but the Federal Reserve finally announced its first rate cut in over four years. Now, virtually everyone who bought a home in the last 18 months will be eager to take advantage. As the market shifts, mortgage lenders could be looking at as much as $500 billion in up-for-grabs refis.

But lenders will have to work a lot harder than they did in 2020 to capture those refis. And underneath that golden opportunity sits a tremendous risk: With a huge volume of practically new mortgages likely to turn over, loan servicers could see a number of recent loans running off their books while lenders face enormous early pay-off (EPO) penalties if they can’t hold onto their existing customers when they refinance.

Mortgage market will accelerate as Fed rates fall

After 11 rate hikes starting in March 2022, the Fed has been adamant that it intends to lower rates in 2024 and 2025. Exactly when those cuts will happen (and how big they’ll be) remains a mystery—one that causes significant market fluctuations after every meeting.

After two-plus years marked by rising rates and rising housing prices, mortgage lenders are naturally optimistic about the coming year. “We expect that this path for monetary policy should support further declines in mortgage rates, just in time for the spring housing market,” Mike Fratantoni, chief economist at the Mortgage Bankers Association, told Bankrate. The National Association of Realtors predicts home sales will rise by 15% next year as falling rates bring hesitant buyers off the sidelines.

A very different kind of refi surge

But the real golden goose will be the oncoming wave of refinancing. Nearly every homeowner who bought between late 2022 and early 2024 did so with an explicit plan to refinance as soon as the highest rates in decades began falling.

How big is that refi opportunity? If rates drop below 6.625%, organizations working with Total Expert will be looking at an estimated $81 billion in refis up for grabs—and that opportunity jumps up to $190 billion if rates get below 6.0%.

But this refi surge is going to play out a lot differently than the one we experienced in 2020-2021. That was a true tidal wave: 2020 saw $2.6 trillion in inflation-adjusted refinance originations. Refi customers were pouring through lenders’ doors, and the only strategy then was: “try to keep up.”

In 2024/2025, lenders will see a lot more competition for that $190 billion in up-for-grabs refis. They won’t be able to sit back and wait for refis to come to them; their competition will be out stealing those opportunities.  

A major opportunity that could quickly turn into catastrophic risk

Mortgage lenders are going to have to balance two priorities: attracting new borrowers who patiently waited for rates to drop and retaining previous customers who impatiently waited for rates to drop. Both groups present major opportunities, but focusing too much on either could have severe and long-term consequences. Only focusing on new homebuyers means risking losing existing customers and incurring massive EPO penalties. On the other hand, ignoring new borrowers for the sake of retention means missing out on a huge slice of the new purchase pie.

That’s because the 2024/2025 refi surge will differ in another important way: Nearly all refis will be on mortgages originated within the last two years—with a huge portion originating within the last 12 to 18 months. Losing refis is always a hit to long-term revenue, but losing these refis will bring a wave of EPO penalties that will quickly overwhelm lenders that may already struggle to be profitable in the current market.

Given the volume of at-risk mortgages, the damage could quickly get serious. With the industry-average retention rate hovering around 20%, a mortgage lender that originated 1,400 loans above 6.5% over the last 15-18 months stands to lose over 1,000 of those refinance opportunities—adding up to $280 million on lost loan volume (assuming an average loan size of $250k). If 800 of those loans are less than six months old, they are at risk of paying out roughly $4.8 million in EPO penalties.

Proactive engagement will win the battle

Whereas 2020 was a bit of a “rising tide lifts all boats” situation, 2024/2025 will see a sharp divide between winners and losers in the mortgage lending industry. And for once, winning won’t be all about new originations and new customer acquisition: The top priority needs to be holding onto existing customers’ refis to prevent EPOs from torpedoing revenue and growth from below.

That means engaging customers proactively—now, not when rates finally drop—to help them understand what’s coming in 2024/2025. Help them make the cost-benefit calculation of refinancing at a lower rate versus waiting four, six, or eight months for rates to fall further. This is the kind of genuinely useful educational engagement that earns loyalty and will outshine the low-rate competitor offers, which are guaranteed to sit at the top of your customers’ inboxes every day.

Prioritizing refi retention: Put the mechanics in place now, or risk playing catch-up

Refi activity will accelerate quickly once rates start to drop in 2024. Your competitors will have their fingers on the trigger of their refi acquisition campaigns, aiming to be the first to entice your customers with low rates. But while they wait to steal your customers, you can start engaging and educating customers TODAY, positioning yourself as their best resource for when they’re ready to refi.

Want to see the four things that define the winning mortgage lenders?

Read our latest refi guide: https://info.totalexpert.com/dont-send-your-refinance-opportunities-into-orbit

Resources

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Expert Partner Network

The Reputation Playbook for Lenders Who Want to Grow in the AI Era

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Meet the Partner: Birdeye

Birdeye is the #1 Agentic Marketing Platform for multi-location brands. Financial institutions use Birdeye to manage their online presence, collect and respond to customer reviews, monitor local listings, and turn customer feedback into actionable growth intelligence. Birdeye’s platform unifies the marketing stack to help lenders, banks, and credit unions build trust at scale—branch by branch, advisor by advisor—so every part of the organization is earning customer confidence before, during, and after the relationship begins.

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For most financial institutions, the customer relationship begins when someone fills out an application, walks into a branch, or picks up the phone. But that’s not when your customer’s journey begins.

Long before a borrower reaches out, they’ve already started forming an opinion about you, your competitors, realtors, and the mortgage industry in general. They’ve searched for lenders in their area, read reviews, seen the news, and talked to family, friends, and coworkers. They’ve probably even asked Claude or ChatGPT to compare rates from local banks and credit unions. They’ve scanned branch listings, looked at star ratings, and made a shortlist of their top choices. They’ve done a lot. And all without ever speaking to a single person on your team.

That’s the new front door for financial services. And for too many institutions, that front door is invisible, inconsistent, or completely closed. It’s a huge problem that Total Expert and Birdeye are working together to solve.

The shift happening right now in borrower discovery

Borrower behavior has changed in ways that most financial institutions haven’t fully caught up with yet. For a long time, reputations in financial services were built through branch relationships, local presence, referrals, and personal trust. Those things still matter but, today, trust is often built or lost before a borrower ever speaks to a loan officer, banker, or advisor.

A borrower may first meet your brand through a Google search, an online review, a branch listing, a social post, or an AI-generated answer. They may ask AI platforms which lender is best for first-time homebuyers, which credit union has the best service, or which local bank is easiest to work with. In that moment, your reputation isn’t just what your brand says. It’s what the digital ecosystem can find, understand, and validate about you.

The data backs this up. Birdeye’s State of Online Reviews 2026 report found that review volume grew 30.7% year over year in 2025, with Google capturing nearly 80% of all reviews. Meanwhile, McKinsey describes AI-powered search as the “new front door to the internet,” with research showing that half of consumers already use AI-powered search and that AI search could influence $750 billion in revenue by 2028.

For financial institutions, this matters because trust is a product you can’t put a price on. People are making decisions about homes, savings, credit, and their financial future. If your branch information is inaccurate, your reviews are negative or outdated, or customer feedback goes unanswered; you may lose the borrower before the relationship even starts.

What Birdeye does and why it matters for financial institutions

Birdeye replaces fragmented point tools with one full-cycle platform. Instead of forcing small teams to manually update data, custom AI agents execute marketing playbooks autonomously across hundreds of locations. For financial institutions, it helps manage the full digital presence of every branch, advisor, and location—at scale.

In practical terms, that means:

  • Keeping branch and location data accurate and consistent across every major listing platform and search engine
  • Collecting customer feedback and reviews at key moments in the borrower journey
  • Monitoring and responding to reviews across Google and other platforms—quickly and at scale
  • Surfacing customer experience signals by branch, loan officer, product line, or market so teams can identify where trust is strong and where it’s breaking down
  • Building the content, consistency, and credibility signals that AI-driven answer engines use to recommend businesses to consumers

Birdeye’s State of AI Search 2026 report found that in an analysis of ChatGPT, Gemini, and Perplexity, 80% of brands were cited at least once in AI-generated answers—but only 15% held the top citation position with their own owned domain. AI search rewards clarity, structure, and consistency. The financial institutions that win in AI-driven discovery will be the ones with the most trusted, complete, and credible local footprint.

That’s exactly what Birdeye is built to create.

How Total Expert and Birdeye work together

Most financial institutions don’t have a data problem. They have a connection problem.

Customer signals are everywhere: CRM records, reviews, surveys, branch interactions, loan officer conversations, and servicing feedback. The issue is that these signals often sit in separate systems. So, by the time a team sees the pattern, the moment to act has already passed.

Total Expert helps financial institutions manage customer engagement and relationship journeys. Birdeye helps them capture feedback, manage reputation, improve local visibility, and turn customer signals into action. Together, they connect the relationship layer with the reputation and experience layer—so the intelligence flows in both directions.

Here’s how the integration works in practice:

  • Lenders can request feedback from borrowers at important moments in the relationship journey—after an application, closing, branch visit, or servicing interaction
  • Survey responses and customer experience scores from Birdeye can flow back into Total Expert, giving relationship teams visibility into how borrowers are feeling inside the systems they already use every day
  • A positive review can strengthen local visibility and reinforce trust in that branch or advisor’s digital presence
  • A negative review or recurring complaint can trigger service recovery or escalation—before it becomes a bigger problem
  • Patterns in feedback data can become operational priorities, helping regional or branch leaders identify where the experience is breaking down and course-correct quickly

This is the shift financial institutions need to make: feedback shouldn’t sit in a dashboard. It should move into the daily workflow of the business.

From reactive to proactive: the future of experience-driven growth

The traditional model of reputation management was reactive. A customer leaves a review. Someone responds. A report gets created. Maybe a trend reaches leadership weeks later.

That model is too slow for how borrowers make decisions today.

PwC’s 2025 Customer Experience Survey found that 52% of consumers stopped using or buying from a brand after a bad product or service experience, and 29% stopped because of poor customer experience online or in person. Experience isn’t a soft metric. It directly affects loyalty and growth.

Together, Total Expert and Birdeye give financial institutions the tools to move earlier and act faster. AI can help teams listen at scale—bringing together signals from reviews, surveys, social channels, listings, and CRM systems. It can help teams act faster by identifying urgent issues, drafting responses, routing follow-ups, and giving branch and regional leaders clear next steps. And it can help leaders see what’s working: which branches are earning the strongest trust, which loan officers are creating the best borrower experience, and which themes are driving referrals and conversion.

This is where reputation management becomes something bigger: experience-driven growth.

Accessible through the Expert Partner Network

For Total Expert customers, accessing Birdeye is straightforward through the Expert Partner Network—the same ecosystem where lenders can access a range of integrated tools and services designed to support every stage of the borrower journey.

Instead of standing up a new workflow or managing a separate vendor relationship, Birdeye’s capabilities become part of how your team already operates. The feedback loop between Birdeye and Total Expert means your relationship data gets smarter over time, your team sees the signals they need in the right context, and your borrowers experience a more consistent, responsive institution at every touchpoint.

The lenders who win will earn trust before the first conversation

Winning in today’s market isn’t just about having the best rates or the most loan products. It’s about being the institution borrowers find, trust, and choose—often before they ever pick up the phone.

The financial institutions that get ahead will be the ones treating reputation as an operating signal rather than a marketing metric. They’ll use customer feedback as real-time intelligence. They’ll build the kind of consistent, trusted digital presence that earns borrowers in a world where AI is increasingly answering the question, “Who should I work with?”

That’s what Total Expert and Birdeye make possible—together.

Customer IQ

Building an Always-On Context Engine for AI in Lending

mins read
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Total Expert Founder & CEO Joe Welu recently joined the HousingWire Daily podcast to break down how AI is helping lenders have smarter, more personal conversations with borrowers—at a scale that simply wasn't possible before.

In early 2025, Total Expert launched our AI Sales Assistant. Since then, the mortgage industry's relationship with AI has fundamentally changed—and Total Expert Founder and CEO Joe Welu says the results have been unlike anything the company has seen in over a decade of building lending technology.

"The innovation this past 6 to 12 months has been nothing short of extraordinary," Welu told HousingWire's Sarah Wheeler. "The results that we've been able to get with our customers have been really like nothing we've ever seen."

The lending challenge AI is built to solve

At its core, AI Sales Assistant addresses one of lending's most persistent challenges: the gap between an originator’s intentions and their bandwidth. Even the best originators can only connect with so many contacts in a given day, week, or month. And if they want those connections to feel personalized from the borrower or homeowner’s perspective, cookie-cutter emails and phone calls won’t cut it. It takes time. And that’s a very finite resource.  

So, originators have a choice: spend time making each interaction more impactful but reduce the number of contacts they can engage or choose quantity over quality and risk eroding your relationships by failing to personalize your communications.  

AI Sales Assistant was designed to close that gap not by replacing originators but by giving them something they've never had: perfect memory and infinite reach. Nobody can remember every detail from a conversation they had six months ago, and they can't personally reach out to every past customer when rates drop or when they reach an equity threshold.

"If you think about a top producing originator who wants to stay really deeply connected to their customers," Welu explained, "the dependencies are often just the time and human horsepower required to reach out and engage with every one of those consumers."

AI Sales Assistant is on pace to 130 million calls this year; each one personalized to the borrower or homeowner’s specific financial situation, tailored to meet the lender’s unique brand, and trained to comply with industry regulations.

Context is everything: Introducing Customer IQ

What makes Total Expert's approach different isn't just the volume of conversations; it's the depth of context behind each one thanks to Customer IQ.

Customer IQ aggregates and analyzes the data that matters most for homeownership and lending: servicing data, real-time product and pricing information, conversation history, consent records, and more. It creates a continuously enriched contact record of every customer and lead, so that every human and AI-powered engagement is grounded in what actually matters to that borrower right now—even as short-term priorities shift and long-term goals evolve.

"Context is really about helping our customers understand what matters most to that consumer at any given time," Welu said.

When a borrower mentions during a call that they're helping their child buy a house, or that they're thinking about downsizing for retirement, that context gets captured, fed back into Customer IQ, and made available to the originator so their next conversation will be more personalized and more meaningful.  

The human–AI handoff

A key design principle for Total Expert is knowing that there will always be a time when AI needs to step aside and let a human take over. If a borrower hesitates or the conversation isn't flowing, our AI Sales Assistant detects it and seamlessly offers to connect the consumer with an originator in real time or schedule a meeting for a later date.

"Because our AI is trained specifically on mortgage use cases and the types of conversations originators are having every day,” Welu continues. “The AI can sense when conversation isn't going in the direction we want it to," Welu explained. "At that moment, if the originator is available, we can live transfer that customer and just get two humans on the phone."

Lenders have significant control over how and when that handoff happens. Total Expert works closely with each customer to craft conversation flows that match their brand, their compliance requirements, and their vision for the borrower experience.

Unlocking products lenders have left on the table

One of the most compelling use cases for AI in lending is to surface home equity opportunities that originators have historically had little time or interest to pursue. That’s because equity discussions often require educating homeowners on their options for leveraging that equity. If a homeowner doesn’t have an immediate need to pay down debt or fund a large expense, for example, those conversations can quickly become dead ends.

But if Customer IQ identifies a homeowner with significant high-interest revolving debt and available home equity, AI Sales Assistant can leverage that insight to proactively reach out, explain the consolidation opportunity, and send the homeowner a link to start the application—all while keeping the originator informed as the opportunity moves forward.

"The originator retains a customer, their brand stays at the forefront, and the homeowner gets an incredible financial outcome," Welu said. "And now the relationship becomes deeper and more connected because you've been able to deliver something they didn’t expect but definitely needed."

Democratizing what only the biggest lenders could do

Historically, maintaining consistent post-close outreach required massive call center operations that only the largest organizations could sustain. Voice-first AI agents combined with Customer IQ level the playing field for lenders, banks, and credit unions of all sizes.

"What voice AI has done is democratize it," Welu said. "Customer IQ with voice AI gives every lender the ability to say, why can't we have 100% retention of our customers? What's stopping us now?”

Lenders using Customer IQ + AI Sales Assistant have already doubled their recapture rates. And as rate windows open and close with increasing speed, the ability to reach the right borrower at exactly the right moment has never been more valuable.

What's next?

Looking ahead to the rest of 2026, Welu is energized by what he sees as a fundamental reimagining of the lending industry, one where AI elevates people to the highest levels of both creativity and productivity, and where consumers consistently receive the kind of personalized, contextually aware experience that was previously impossible to deliver at scale in this industry.

"I'm excited and energized every day by this reimagining of what’s possible in our industry," he said. "We can elevate people to a place that makes their jobs more meaningful and fulfilling. Ultimately, that will lead to better, more consistent outcomes for consumers. It's win-win across the board."

🎧 Listen to the full episode on HousingWire Daily  

Expert Partner Network

Customer Retention Begins on Closing Day

mins read
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Meet the Partner: Tiff's Treats

Tiff’s Treats is a specialty dessert delivery company known for bringing warm, freshly baked cookies straight from the oven to your customers’ doors. Founded on the idea of creating moments of joy through simple, thoughtful gestures, they’ve built a reputation for high-quality treats and fast, reliable delivery. With a focus on celebration and connection, Tiff’s Treats helps turn every occasion into memorable experiences. Whether it’s a milestone moment or a spontaneous surprise, their deliveries are designed to delight.

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Whether it’s a first-time homebuyer collecting the keys to a dream, a homeowner refinancing to lighten their monthly expenses, or a high-equity homeowner leveraging a HELOC to access funds at a lower rate—closing day is special. And as their focus shifts to moving, decorating, and new plans for the future, too many lenders immediately shift their focus to the next customer, the next loan, and allow a perfect opportunity to build lasting loyalty to slip through their hands.

During the mortgage process, engagement is high. There are daily or weekly conversations, timely updates, and a strong sense of partnership. But once the ink is dry, that cadence often disappears. What was once a high-touch relationship quickly becomes no-touch at all.

But it doesn’t have to.

The post-close drop-off problem

No lender wants to lose touch with their customers. The challenges are often time, resources, and execution.

Loan officers are focused on the next deal. Marketing teams are stretched thin. And without a scalable system to maintain meaningful, timely outreach, post-close engagement becomes inconsistent at best and completely forgotten at worst. That can quickly make what once felt like a truly personal relationship feel like a cold, impersonal transaction.

That gap matters. Because when it comes to referrals and repeat business, success isn’t driven by who provided the lowest rate. It’s driven by the emotional connections, trust, and rapport built along the way.  

If you’re not staying present in your customers’ lives, you’re not just losing visibility—you’re losing relevance.

Why traditional outreach falls flat

Email campaigns, newsletters, and postcards all have their place but let’s be honest: most of them get lost in the noise of crowded inboxes and junk mail.

They’re easy to ignore, easy to delete, and easy to forget. That’s because they don’t stand out. They don’t have a presence. And they don’t make an impact. People don’t remember generic marketing; they remember experiences.

Enter Tiff’s Treats: turning a moment into a memory

That’s where Tiff’s Treats comes in. They help lenders transform closing day and mortgage milestones into memorable experiences by delivering warm, freshly baked cookies straight to your customers’ doors.

Think about the moments that matter most in a homeowner’s journey:

  • Closing on a new home  
  • Celebrating a home anniversary  
  • Completing a refinance  
  • Cashing out
  • Leveraging a HELOC
  • Even SELLING their home

What might be another day at the office for you is a deeply emotional and personal experience for them. So, when you show up in those moments with something tangible—something thoughtful—you create a connection that goes far beyond a templated text or email.  

It creates surprise. It creates delight. And most importantly, it creates a memory your customer will remember—and a story for them to share.

From good intentions to consistent execution

Here’s the reality: most lenders already know they should be doing this. They just struggle with consistency as they juggle new leads and active deals. If the choice is between picking up the phone to engage a motivated borrower and coordinating a gift to a past customer, 99 times out of 100 a loan officer will choose the phone call. That’s why automated gifting is so powerful.

Instead of relying on a manual process that pulls you away from opportunities to close deals, lenders can ensure that key milestones are acknowledged, and past relationships don’t fade away. That consistency keeps you connected in a way that feels natural, not forced.

And over time, those small, thoughtful touches compound into something much bigger:

  • Stronger customer loyalty  
  • More referral conversations  
  • Higher lifetime value  

It’s not about one big gesture. It’s about showing up—consistently—in the moments that matter.

Seamless access through the expert partner network

What makes this even more powerful for Total Expert customers is how easy it is to execute.

Through the Expert Partner Network, lenders can access Tiff’s Treats’ services directly within the Total Expert ecosystem—making it simple to incorporate experiential gifting into their existing customer Journeys. Instead of adding another tool or process, gifting becomes part of the workflow:

  • Trigger deliveries at key lifecycle moments  
  • Align outreach with customer data and milestones  
  • Scale personalized experiences across teams and branches  

Turn small moments into long-term growth

Winning in today’s market isn’t just about acquiring new customers, it’s about keeping the ones you have. The lenders who stand out are the ones who understand that retention is built on relationships. When you consistently demonstrate that you have their needs in mind, something powerful happens:

Customers remember you, trust you, refer you, and come back to you the next time they have a mortgage need. That’s how you turn a single closed loan into a customer for life.

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